| 主讲人简介： | 王霞，厦门大学王亚南经济研究院博士，新加坡管理大学经济学博士后，中国人民大学吴玉章特聘教授，博士生导师，入选教育部长江学者奖励计划青年项目。自2026年开始担任Journal of Econometrics 的Associate Editor。王霞主要从事理论计量经济学以及宏观经济监测与预测等研究工作。在理论计量经济学领域，王霞教授主要关注经济金融变量之间非线性关系的刻画与检验，包括非线性时间序列模型与因子模型、基于非参数方法的计量检验等。在宏观经济监测与预测领域，王霞教授主要关注我国宏观经济的实时分析与混频测度，包括采用日度、月度、季度等不同频率数据构建混频模型、测度我国宏观经济态势、预测关键宏观金融变量等。在 International Economic Review, Journal of Econometrics, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics，Econometric Theory、《经济研究》等高水平期刊发表论文三十余篇。先后主持了两项国家自然科学基金项目和一项教育部人文社科项目，其中已完成的国家自然科学基金青年项目和面上项目在结题后均获评“特优”。曾获得第二届计量经济学者论坛“理论计量经济学最佳论文奖”、中国数量经济学会第三届和第九届优秀科研成果奖论文一等奖、第九届广东省教育教学成果奖一等奖等多个奖项。 |
| 简介： | State-level business conditions exhibit both synchronization and heterogeneity across states. To capture these two features, we propose a three-dimensional factor model for measuring state-level business conditions. To accommodate data imbalance and missing observations, we develop an inferential theory for three-dimensional factor models under general missingness. Our estimation procedure applies principal component analysis to an adjusted covariance matrix constructed from partially observed data, yielding a flexible estimator that efficiently exploits all available observations. We derive the asymptotic distributions of the estimated factors and loadings. Using these estimators together with a variance-decomposition framework, we construct state-level business condition indices for the United States and China. The results reveal substantial comovement as well as pronounced cross-state heterogeneity. |